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The Effect of the Proposed Antioch Marketplace on Retail Sales, Downtown, and the Strength of the Retail Base in Antioch
Client: V-Land Corporation and GMX Real Estate
dashed line separator The Antioch Marketplace is a proposed power shopping center to be developed on vacant land west of the northwest corner of Route 173 and Deep Lake Road in Antioch, Illinois. The proposed shopping center is anticipated to consist of approximately 600,000 square feet of space on approximately 76 acres of land. Primary anchor tenants are expected to include Target, Kohl’s, and Lowe’s. Lowe’s store is expected to total approximately 172,900 square feet of space. Target’s store is expected to total approximately 132,200 square feet. Kohl’s store is expected to total approximately 89,900 square feet of space. Junior anchor tenants are anticipated to include a Staples store of almost 20,400 square feet and a Petsmart store of almost 20,100 square feet.

The developers of the proposed development retained Gruen Gruen + Associates (GG+A) to evaluate the impact of the proposed Antioch Marketplace on retail sales and the strength of the retail base in Antioch. The study focused on the potential impact of the proposed development on the Downtown commercial base.

GG+A reviewed of historical sales patterns, first in terms of the overall sales patterns by major retail category, and then on a per capita basis to provide a framework to reach inferences about the in-flows and out-flows of retail sales dollars for Antioch, the relative position of Antioch’s retail sales base, and the effects of the addition of the Wal-Mart store in late 2004 to the east of the proposed development. GG+A conducted interviews with developers, real estate brokers, and retailers and considered transportation factors and existing and proposed retail supply to define the primary market area and evaluate the supply of retail shopping centers and major free-standing stores within the primary trade area. GG+A estimated current and future retail demand in the primary market area and identified the balance between estimated retail supply and demand.

GG+A forecast gross annual sales for the proposed development based on (a) the implications of the historic sales patterns analysis, (b) the demand-supply analysis, and (c) estimates of sales productivity for the specific tenants or types of tenancies anticipated based on analysis of data available from the businesses and industry publications. GG+A estimated the direct effect of the proposed development on retail sales in Antioch and on the Downtown commercial uses. GG+A describes the cumulative, long-term effect of the proposed development as it relates to the retail base of and economic development in Antioch and the vitality of the Downtown. GG+A made recommendations for preserving and enhancing the strength of Downtown Antioch.

In addition to providing a report summarizing the results of the research and analysis, a GG+A principal testified at hearings before Antioch’s Planning Commission and Village Board. The project was subsequently approved.

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