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The Effect of the Proposed Centerplace of Greeley, Colorado Development on Retail Sales
and the Strength of the Retail Base in Greeley

Client: Regency Centers
dashed line separator Regency Centers retained Gruen Gruen + Associates (GG+A) to estimate the impact of the proposed CenterPlace of Greeley development on net retail sales in the City of Greeley (CO). CenterPlace is a proposed hybrid community/power shopping center of approximately 600,000 square feet of space to be developed at U.S. Highway 34 Bypass, 47th Avenue, and 26th Street in Greeley. Primary anchor tenants are expected to include Target, Kohl's, Lowe's, and Safeway. Junior anchor tenants are expected to include Best Buy, Gart Sports, Ross Dress for Less, Michael's Arts & Crafts, and Famous Footwear.

To provide a framework for the estimate of net sales and to reach inferences about the in-flows and out-flows of retail sales dollars for Greeley and the relative position of Greeley's retail base, GG+A conducted an analysis of historical sales patterns for Greeley, Fort Collins, and Loveland, first in terms of overall sales patterns by major retail category, and then on a per capita basis.

GG+A identified a primary trade area based on the review of supply options and interviews with developers and retailers and completed an analysis of retail supply. GG+A reviewed the results of a survey of consumer shopping patterns of Greeley residents. GG+A estimated the sales generated by the existing stock of retail centers and major free-standing stores in Greeley. GG+A then reviewed the major demand and supply retailing and retail estate trends that will impact on the existing stock of retailers and retail centers irrespective of whether the proposed development is built. Inferences were drawn about future sales patterns in light of these shifts.

GG+A prepared an estimate of current and future retail demand (in term of available dollars for retail expenditures from residents) in the primary market area and estimated the relationship between retail supply and potential demand. Based on the implications of the historic sales patterns analysis, the supply-demand analysis, and estimates of sales productivity for the specific tenants or types of tenancies anticipated based on analysis of data available from the businesses and industry publications, GG+A estimated the gross annual sales for the proposed development. Based on a synthesis of the research and analysis, GG+A estimated the potential sales diversions from existing retailers to prepare an estimate of the net sales effect and sales tax effect of the proposed development. GG+A also reviewed another strategy for distributing or allocating potential demand and described the cumulative, long-term effect of the proposed development as it relates to Greeley's retail base and economic development.

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