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The Market For Retail and Office Uses and Strategic Recommendations for the Enhancement of Southern Scottsdale
Client: The City of Scottsdale, AZ
dashed line separator The City of Scottsdale retained Gruen Gruen + Associates (GG+A) to assess and forecast the market for retail and office uses in and to identify strategic actions for the enhancement of Southern Scottsdale. GG+A directed the retail market research to estimating the relationship between the potential demand for retail space and the potential supply of space within two relevant trade areas. We identified the relationship between potential retail demand and estimated retail supply to reach judgments about the relative intensity of competition for the sales dollars of consumers within the relevant trade areas and the potential for study area to capture additional retail space.

The retail market research included a review of taxable sales trends and interviews directed to obtaining information about the relative advantages and disadvantages of Southern Scottsdale as a convenience and shopper or comparison good retail location as well as a location for automobile dealerships. The interviews were also used to obtain perspective on relevant trade areas and competing locations with retail space and automotive dealerships in Southern Scottsdale.

To provide a framework for the office space demand-supply assessment, GG+A conducted field research and interviews with real estate brokers, office space developers, and office building owners as well as large office space users. We directed these interviews toward gaining information and insights needed to define the relevant primary market area and to identify: (a) the likely origins and types of prospective users, (b) the alternative locations prospective users will consider, and (c) the relative advantages and disadvantages of Southern Scottsdale as an office location. We studied office space supply conditions within Southern Scottsdale and the broader office market. We forecast the demand for office space by: (a) analyzing historic employment levels by economic sector for Scottsdale and Southern Scottsdale, (b) reviewing forecast employment by primary land use (provided by Maricopa Association of Governments), and (c) comparing the estimated present and future supply of office space in Southern Scottsdale to forecast demand. We synthesized these office market research tasks to reach conclusions about the potential for office space development in Southern Scottsdale.

The information and insights gained from the market reconnaissance were used to identify an enhancement strategy for Southern Scottsdale designed to arrest and reverse the decline of Southern Scottsdale. In addition to a tenanting marketing strategy and strategies related to enhancing the strength of the agglomeration of automotive dealers, GG+A recommended land use and parking policy changes directed to encouraging the replacement of obsolete uses, including smaller, older, currently unsuccessful shopping centers, with relatively high density residential uses as well as larger retail uses capable of attracting more dynamic tenants and withstanding the supply competition.

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