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Analysis and Forecast of the Economic Base of Scottsdale
Client: City of Scottsdale, AZ
dashed line separator Gruen Gruen + Associates (GG+A) conducted an economic base analysis for the City of Scottsdale that forecast private sector employment and opportunity by major industrial sector, as well as the likely demand for the built environment, for the Airpark/Sonoran Regional Core (SRC) area. The purpose, defined by the City, was to identify the structure of the local economy and future opportunities and constraints for this core area so as to permit the City to properly locate, time, size and finance the public infrastructure needed to complement private residential and non-residential development and to provide a planning framework for the area.

Several methodologies were included in this analysis and report. A shift-share econometric model was constructed in order to forecast future employment levels by industry, for both the City and for the Airpark/SRC area. These employment projections then provided the basis for estimates of building space demand by type. Further, this study also paid particular attention to the likely development of the hospitality industry in Scottsdale, currently one of their most active sectors. GG+A designed and conducted two separate surveys: one designed to collect data from Scottsdale hotels and one to collect data from Scottsdale business enterprises in all economic sectors. The results of these surveys, combined with GG+A economic analysis, provided insight into the economic forces impacting the hospitality industry and economic development in general in the City.

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