Client: City of Tracy (CA)

As a foundation for decisions about zoning revisions to the General Plan, annexation policies and a new infrastructure master plan, the City of Tracy hired GG+A to forecast the amount of supportable demand and land requirements for retail, office and industrial space within the City and its sphere of influence. GG+A forecast the potential long-term demand for retail space, office space, and industrial space in Tracy and the amount of land needed to accommodate forecast space demands. In addition to considering the appropriateness of alternative vacant sites for the various uses, the GG+A analysis provided specific recommendations targeted to improving the viability and magnetism of the existing Downtown, as well as the Interstate 205 retail corridor in the west side of Tracy. The report also identified constraints that can potentially be altered and opportunities capitalized upon to improve Tracy’s economic base.

GG+A reviewed demographic trends in Tracy and San Joaquin County. GG+A analyzed taxable sales trends and made estimates of sales surplus and leakage.   GG+A identified and described the relevant market area for community- and regional-serving retail uses and the supply of space within the primary market area. GG+A estimated the demand for retail space within the primary trade area and evaluated the relationship between estimated retail space supply and demand within the primary trade area.  GG+A identified available opportunity sites and estimated the amount of land needed in Tracy to serve forecast retail space demand. Most importantly, the scale, type and timing of retail development were recommended to help solidify Tracy’s primary trade area dominance.

GG+A also evaluated conditions in the Downtown, the advantages and disadvantages of the Downtown as a commercial location, and identified entertainment and restaurant uses as an important market niche opportunity. GG+A recommended policy actions needed to permit the Downtown to realize the identified market opportunity – the primary one being the need to concentrate uses.

GG+A completed an extensive analysis of the economic structure of Tracy and prepared a forecast of the potential future employment in Tracy by economic sector.  The employment forecast served as a key input into the projections of office and industrial space demands. GG+A also identified the primary geographic areas from which office space users are attracted and the competing locations. GG+A identified the primary advantages and disadvantages associated with Tracy as an office location and evaluated the office space inventory and planned additions to the supply of office space in Tracy.  GG+A reviewed the land capacity to accommodate future office space development.

GG+A used its proprietary model Spacewalk™ to prepare a base case forecastof the demand for office space. GG+A estimated the amount of land needed to accommodate future office space development, and the relationship between the estimated demand for land and supply of land for office uses. GG+A recommended policy and marketing actions. Recommendations for the amount of land to be zoned for each of the uses considered the need to encourage competition among land sellers and the unique role that existing agricultural uses, such as dairies, affected the reservation price of land in Tracy.

GG+A identified the primary geographic area within which Tracy sites compete for industrial users and the locations from which industrial users are attracted. GG+A identified the types of users attracted and the primary advantages such users derive from a Tracy location as well as the disadvantages associated with a Tracy location for industrial uses. GG+A identified the land capacity within Tracy and its sphere of influence to accommodate additional industrial space development.  GG+A estimated industrial space demand based on GG+A’s forecast of the number of workers expected to work in industrial space as well as a separate forecast of distribution space demand related to the growth in the volume of Port of Oakland container shipments as well as the need to replace obsolete space.   Recommendations concerning the amount of land to be zoned considered the amounts and locations of land needed to maintain a competitive, functioning industrial land market, given forecast demand opportunities.

In addition to preparing an extensive report, GG+A presented the findings and recommendations to the City Council.