Client:  Alameda County

Gruen Gruen + Associates (GG+A) contributed market analysis and financial analysis to support the preparation of a real estate master plan for Alameda County. The master plan included the development of long-term strategies for the use of office space in Oakland and Hayward to accommodate the workplace needs of Alameda County employees, while improving service delivery and reducing costs.

GG+A contributed market analysis to forecast the demand for office space in Oakland and Hayward. The market analysis included an identification of the relevant geographic areas from which office users are attracted and within which building owners compete for users; an analysis of supply characteristics and trends, an employment-based office space demand forecast and estimate of future office rents. The findings drawn from interviews with major office space developers, property owners, and real estate brokers and secondary data analysis., including forecast of future rents, were used as inputs into a financial model GG+A developed to forecast the long-term occupancy costs of multiple alternatives for meeting the long term space needs of the Alameda County forecast. The results of the market analysis also provided insight on whether it would be advantageous to lease, buy, or develop space to meet the long-term space needs of the County. The forecast of rents was also used as inputs to models GG+A developed to evaluate the value of disposing of existing potentially surplus office space or land for office uses.

GG+A also conduced market analysis for multi-family residential uses in Oakland and Hayward. The market research included interviews with representatives of active developments to obtain information insight about relevant markets, relationship between product characteristics, locations, and obtainable prices, supply competition, sources of demand, and comparative advantages and disadvantages of alternative locations. The results of the analysis were used to structure forecasts of the cash flow and residual land and property values for the development or reuse of existing County-owned building space for multi-family uses in Oakland and Hayward.

GG+A built a comprehensive financial model to compare net occupancy costs of alternative strategies for meeting the County’s space needs. The model include most of the County’s leased and owned office space, and estimated costs over the next 20 years of leased and owned space occupancy, including capital costs, maintenance costs, and operating costs. The model also included costs of financing new construction and revenue from potential dispositions, parking revenue and the leasing of space to non County users. The alternatives were compared by discounting the forecast future net occupancy costs into present values. GG+A identified the strategic planning and implementation implications and risks and costs and benefits of the alternatives based on a synthesis of the market and financial analysis.